A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
