🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Made $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the US operation. Changing Odds in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to Donald Trump stated on Saturday that Maduro had been taken into custody. A single trader, which became a member last month and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a starting bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Platform data shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But these probabilities had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and surged in the first hours of January 3rd, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a bet based on confidential knowledge," said an industry expert. Several of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Politicians are growing concerned. A bill put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to predict everything from sports outcomes to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."